These are difficult times for all of us. One thing we should be thankful for is the leadership of our provincial government, praised by all opposition parties. These people will lead us through the storm. I urge you to follow their lead to the letter.
The light at the end of the tunnel
Here are some observations from managers at CI Investments. In China (excluding Hubei) and South Korea, there is an inflection in the reported number of new cases within 20 days of reaching the 100 case threshold.
In other words, once the 100-case threshold is reached, it takes 15 to 20 days for the epidemic to be brought under control. (Fewer cases in one day than the day before). In South Korea, the inflection point was reached after 17 days. In Italy, they hope to reach this point next week.
t = the time when a country reports 100 cases of Covid-19
What does this statistic mean for your investments?
The stock markets could be torn between two trends. Will they look for evidence that the virus will eventually be contained in China, South Korea and hopefully Italy, or will they infer from the increase in confirmed new cases in the G7 countries that the economic fallout from this shock is getting worse?
From our perspective, however, we can make two observations:
The next few weeks will be critical to containing the spread of the virus in the developed world, and the economic fallout could worsen considerably.
This trend can be curbed. Some countries have already done so, and in the long run this could create interesting opportunities for investors.
Managers are cleaning up their portfolios and this will undoubtedly make yours perform even better once the crisis is over. We have to trust them.
Patience will be the key. At this point, it would be far-fetched to think that everything will be settled in a month. But it is. You have to understand that in 2008 people lost confidence in the system. This is far from being the case now. If we assume that the market is waiting for the curve to flatten out or for a vaccine to be announced, we can make an assumption that the problem could be solved between 2 and 18 months. But this is just one of many assumptions.
Until then, however, remain cautious.
On that note, if you need to talk, feel free to call me. I can't go see a client, but I can talk on the phone and if you want a Skype, Face Time or other interview are very comfortable I have no problem with that! Quite the contrary.
If I may say so. Decrease your TV, newspaper and talk radio time. The media has made a spectacle of itself and I don't think you need them to know it's bad.
"Start by doing what is necessary, then do what is possible and you will achieve the impossible without realizing it. Francis of Assisi In closing, I offer you the advice of a psychotherapist. To read the advice, CLICK HERE (french only)